Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 91125 a New Approach for Modeling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections
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چکیده
Whether voters vote strategically, using their vote to best further their interests, or vote sincerely, voting for their rst choice among the alternatives, is a question of longstanding interest. We o er two innovations in searching for the answer to this question. First, we begin with a more consistent model of sincere voting in multiparty democratic systems than has been presented in the literature to date. Second, we incorporate new operationalizations of the objective potential for strategic behavior than have been used in the past. We o er a test of strategic voting in the 1987 British General Election based on the variance in strategic setting across constituencies in Britain. We allow voters to use available information in deciding whether or not to cast a strategic vote. We estimate a lower level of strategic voting than many other methods have estimated. We also demonstrate that the use of self-reported vote motivation causes errors in estimating the amount of strategic voting, and that this problem is exacerbated the further from the election the self-report is obtained. A New Approach for Modeling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections R. Michael Alvarez Jonathan Nagler
منابع مشابه
Division of the Humanities and Soci Al Sciences California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 91125 Why Did the Incumbency Advantage in U.s. House Elections Grow?
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تاریخ انتشار 1997